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All depends on where you live and what got loose, if you live in a warm climate and a gravid female got loose then yes definitely. If you live somewhere cold and a small nymph or male gets loose then no chance at all and it will just be a gradual curve when editing the scenarios if it's possible or not.

I live in Scotland and through the summer, yes, if a gravid red runner got loose then it would cause an issue, but right now its freezing so she wouldn't stand much chance. They can survive alot but they can't breed in the low temps.

Any story's you have read are likely from warm regions where an escape would result in an infestation.

When you say self sustaining colony, if it is loose in you're house that is called an infestation, when you have it in a tub it's called a colony so there is no difference in what you are trying to explain as different.